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Updated Wisconsin basketball schedule prediction from ESPN BPI ranking

Written by

Kleber Alcatrao

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It would be challenging to draw up a more perfect start to the 2025 calendar year than the one the Wisconsin Badgers (14-3, 4-2 Big Ten) have produced.

The team is 4-0 with conference wins over Iowa, Rutgers, Minnesota and Ohio State. That stretch has rocketed the team up the Big Ten standings. The Badgers are tied for fifth with Oregon, two games behind first-place Michigan State. That rise follows the team’s 0-2 start in conference play.

Related: Everything Wisconsin head coach Greg Gard said after milestone victory over Ohio State

Those wins have built Wisconsin’s profile as a conference contender. While its offensive prowess (No. 14 in KenPom) was known from the moment the season began, its defensive efficiency is beginning to trend toward that mark (No. 49). Wisconsin has allowed an average of just 67 points during its six-game win streak dating to mid-December. That total is far below where the team stood early in the season, especially after losses to Marquette (88 points) and Illinois (86 points).

The new-look Big Ten doesn’t allow for much breathing room, even when a team has won six straight. That reality is made clear by Thursday’s results. Minnesota upset Michigan in overtime. Northwestern did the same against Maryland, and Rutgers won on the road at Nebraska. Michigan and Maryland are thought to be conference contenders; each displayed the perils of an off-night in conference play, even against its worst team (Minnesota).

Wisconsin seeks to avoid that fate when it embarks on its first Big Ten West Coast road trip. The Badgers visit USC (11-6, 3-3 Big Ten) on Saturday and UCLA (11-6, 2-4 Big Ten) on Tuesday. Another pair of wins could send Wisconsin closer to the top spot in the conference, plus near the top 10 of the AP Poll.

For more on those games and the Badgers’ updated season outlook, here is ESPN BPI’s forecast of the team’s remaining schedule. Each listed win probability is compared to the BPI’s projections on Jan. 8, after the Badgers’ win over Rutgers:

Nov. 4, 2024; Los Angeles, California; Southern California Trojans head coach Eric Musselman interacts with fans after the game against the Chattanooga Mocs at Galen Center. Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Matchup Predictor: 56.6% Wisconsin wins (down from 58.9%)

USC BPI Rank: No. 58 (9.7)

USC 2024-25 Record: 11-6 (3-3 Big Ten)

USC’s outlook has changed over the last week as it has notched wins over Illinois and Iowa. The Trojans were projected as a bottom-three team in the conference as recently as last week. Those statement victories are beginning to change that outlook.

Considering USC’s hot stretch and the required travel, Wisconsin should receive major credit if it exits Saturday with a victory.

Get more (USC) news, analysis and opinions on Trojans Wire

March 14, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada; UCLA Bruins coach Mick Cronin walks off the court after the Oregon Ducks defeated the Bruins 68-66 at T-Mobile Arena. Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Matchup Predictor: 43.6% Wisconsin wins (up from 38%)

UCLA BPI Rank: No. 34 (12.8)

UCLA 2024-25 Record: 11-6 (2-4 Big Ten)

While USC is trending positively, UCLA’s season is spiraling in the wrong direction. The Bruins have lost five of six, plus four straight in conference play. That includes losses at Nebraska, vs. Michigan, at Maryland and at Rutgers. The stretch prompted coach Mick Cronin to say the following: “I think we are trying, but here are the facts. We have struggled in Big Ten basketball. … The truth of it is, Big Ten basketball is different. It’s a much more physical game.”

That trend makes this a game Wisconsin must win, even considering the game’s location.

Get more (UCLA) news, analysis and opinions on UCLA Wire

Feb. 25, 2024; Piscataway, New Jersey; Maryland Terrapins coach Kevin Willard looks on as the Terrapins bench celebrates during the first half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Jersey Mike’s Arena. Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Matchup Predictor: 34% Wisconsin wins (up from 33.2%)

Maryland BPI Rank: No. 23 (15.2)

Maryland 2024-25 Record: 13-5 (3-4 Big Ten)

Maryland is a tough team to figure out. ESPN BPI and KenPom project it as one of the better teams in the Big Ten, while results like Thursday’s loss at Northwestern do the opposite. This matchup will gain further clarity as the Terrapins host Nebraska, and visit Illinois and Indiana in the next two weeks.

Feb. 28, 2024; College Park, Maryland; Northwestern Wildcats coach Chris Collins look down court during the first half against the Maryland Terrapins at Xfinity Center. Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Matchup Predictor: 49.5% Wisconsin wins (up from 46.8%)

Northwestern BPI Rank: No. 47 (11.3)

Northwestern 2024-25 Record: 11-6 (2-4 Big Ten)

ESPN BPI sees this game as a coin flip. It’s easy to see why. Northwestern already has home wins over Maryland and Illinois. The Wildcats have shown that top-end ability while also falling to Iowa, Penn State, Purdue and Michigan State. They’re firmly entrenched as one of the conference’s middle tier teams.

Indiana coach Mike Woodson during the Indiana versus UNC Greensboro men’s basketball game at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Thursday, Nov. 21, 1024. Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Matchup Predictor: 80.4% Wisconsin wins (up from 76.7%)

Indiana BPI Rank: No. 60 (9.3)

Indiana 2024-25 Record: 13-5 (4-3 Big Ten)

The wheels are beginning to come off at Indiana. The Hoosiers have lost two straight in decisive fashion: 85-60 to Iowa and 94-69 to Illinois. That stretch has given rise to calls for a coaching change. At the least, it’s beginning to set up a make-or-break season for Mike Woodson. Wisconsin may benefit from facing the Hoosiers after another two weeks of action.

March 14, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota; Iowa Hawkeyes coach Fran McCaffery reacts during the first half against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Target Center. Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Matchup Predictor: 49.1% Wisconsin wins (down from 50.2%)

Iowa BPI Rank: No. 45 (11.6)

Iowa 2024-25 Record: 12-5 (3-3 Big Ten)

Don’t discount the Hawkeyes. Although the team recently fell on the road at USC, it has played much better since a record-breaking loss to Wisconsin on Jan. 3. That includes double-digit wins over Nebraska and Indiana. Even with that stretch, Iowa still needs to figure out the defensive end of the court . It is No. 130 in KenPom defensive efficiency. A 2-0 sweep over the Hawkeyes will be necessary for Wisconsin to enter conference contention.

Purdue coach Matt Painter talks to Boilermakers forward Caleb Furst (1) Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, during the NCAA men’s basketball game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Ind. Purdue Boilermakers won 104-68. Alex Martin/Journal and Courier-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Matchup Predictor: 27.5% Wisconsin wins (down from 30.4%)

Purdue BPI Rank: No. 13 (16.9)

Purdue 2024-25 Record: 14-4 (6-1 Big Ten)

Purdue is again one of the better teams in the country. Its early season losses to top competition feel like the distant past after a dominant stretch of conference play: a 20-point win over Minnesota, 18-point win over Northwestern, 18 over Rutgers, 36 over Nebraska and 11 over Washington.

It should be noted that none of those five opponents appear to be NCAA Tournament teams at this stage of the season. Purdue still must prove its ceiling against some of the conference’s top competition.

Nov. 8, 2024; Champaign, Illinois; Illinois Fighting Illini coach Brad Underwood displays the three consecutive Big Ten championship trophies before a game against the SIU Edwardsville Cougars at State Farm Center. Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Matchup Predictor: 47.2% Wisconsin wins (unchanged)

Illinois BPI Rank: No. 9 (18.4)

Illinois 2024-25 Record: 13-4 (5-2 Big Ten)

A nearly 50% chance feels optimistic given the fact Wisconsin hasn’t defeated Illinois since 2019 (nine-game losing streak). The Fighting Illini have shown weakness of late, however, with a home loss to USC. Star freshman Kasparas Jakucionis missed that contest. The team has three losses with him in the lineup: vs. Tennessee, at Northwestern and vs. Alabama.

March 20, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; Oregon Ducks coach Dana Altman (middle) talks to his team during practice before their 2024 NCAA Tournament First Round game at PPG Paints Arena. Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Matchup Predictor: 64.6% Wisconsin wins (down from 64.7%)

Oregon BPI Rank: No. 29 (14.0)

Oregon 2024-25 Record: 15-2 (4-2 Big Ten)

Wisconsin caught a scheduling break with Oregon visiting Madison. Getting the Ducks, the Big Ten’s top West Coast team, at home could be a factor that significantly tips the scales in Wisconsin’s favor. This could be a game Wisconsin will need to win down the stretch.

Get more (Oregon) news, analysis and opinions on Ducks Wire

Dec. 3, 2024; Los Angeles, California; Washington Huskies coach Danny Sprinkle gestures in the first half against the UCLA Bruins at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom. Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Matchup Predictor: 88.9% Wisconsin wins (up from 86.6%)

Washington BPI Rank: No. 98 (5.3)

Washington 2024-25 Record: 10-8 (1-6 Big Ten)

This is a game Wisconsin can’t afford to lose. The Huskies are at the bottom of the Big Ten standings, tied for last with Minnesota. Their one Big Ten win came at home against a Maryland team making a cross-country trip. Everything points in Wisconsin’s direction in this matchup. Again, it can’t be one that the Badgers see slip away.

Get more (Washington) news, analysis and opinions on Huskies Wire

Michigan State’s Jase Richardson, left, talks with coach Tom Izzo during a break in the action in the game against Florida Atlantic on Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024, in East Lansing. Nick King/Lansing State Journal-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Matchup Predictor: 29.1% Wisconsin wins (down from 31.1%)

Michigan State BPI Rank: No. 16 (16.6)

Michigan State 2024-25 Record: 15-2 (6-0 Big Ten)

Wisconsin’s schedule includes several breaks. One break only playing Michigan State and Purdue once. This road trip to East Lansing, Michigan, will be one of the more challenging on Wisconsin’s schedule. A win could be the final resume boost needed for a top NCAA Tournament seed.

Get more (Michigan State) news, analysis and opinions on Spartans Wire

Coach Ben Johnson of the Minnesota Golden Gophers greets coach Greg Gard of the Wisconsin Badgers before start of game at Kohl Center on Jan. 10, 2025 in Madison, Wisconsin. John Fisher/Getty Images

Matchup Predictor: 72.3% Wisconsin wins (down from 73.2%)

Minnesota BPI Rank: No. 93 (5.5)

Minnesota 2024-25 Record: 9-9 (1-6 Big Ten)

Minnesota notched its best win of the season on Thursday, defeating Michigan on an overtime buzzer-beater. The Gophers will still likely rank near the bottom of the Big Ten by the time this game is played. They’ve shown some strong form at home, however, with the Michigan win and double-overtime loss to Ohio State.





With the college basketball season in full swing, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) has released an updated ranking for the Wisconsin Badgers. Based on this ranking, here is the predicted schedule for the rest of the season:

1. Jan 20 – vs. Purdue (Win)
2. Jan 23 – at Maryland (Loss)
3. Jan 27 – vs. Northwestern (Win)
4. Jan 30 – at Nebraska (Win)
5. Feb 3 – vs. Penn State (Win)
6. Feb 6 – at Illinois (Loss)
7. Feb 10 – vs. Michigan State (Win)
8. Feb 13 – at Michigan (Loss)
9. Feb 18 – vs. Rutgers (Win)
10. Feb 21 – at Minnesota (Win)
11. Feb 24 – vs. Iowa (Loss)
12. Feb 27 – at Rutgers (Loss)
13. Mar 3 – vs. Nebraska (Win)
14. Mar 6 – at Iowa (Loss)

According to ESPN’s BPI ranking, the Wisconsin Badgers are predicted to finish the season with a record of 10-4, with key wins against Purdue, Michigan State, and Minnesota. It will be interesting to see if the Badgers can live up to these predictions and secure a favorable seed in the upcoming NCAA tournament.

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  1. Wisconsin basketball schedule
  2. Wisconsin basketball prediction
  3. ESPN BPI ranking
  4. Wisconsin basketball updates
  5. NCAA basketball predictions
  6. Wisconsin Badgers
  7. College basketball schedule
  8. March Madness predictions
  9. Wisconsin basketball news
  10. Big Ten basketball schedule

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