Virginia Tech at Florida State

Virginia Tech is back in action on Wednesday night down in Tallahassee with Florida State hosting this ACC matchup. The Hokies (8-12, 3-6) and the Seminoles (13-7, 4-5) will both be attempting to turn their losing streaks around and change their fortunes from the latest stretch of games. Virginia Tech comes in having lost their last three games while Florida State comes in having dropped both in the California tour of their ACC schedule. The Seminoles open as 10.5-point favorites for the game televised on the ACC Network. 

Florida State has always run deep lineups under head coach Leonard Hamilton and this season is no different. The part where is starts to become more abnormal is the rebounding totals but even that isn’t as bad as it might initially appears. The Seminoles still play the fast-paced offense that loves to get out in transition because of their efficiency at forcing turnovers. There are two true offensive stars on the roster but because of the depth and amount of players rotating in there are plenty who can step up to make a statistical impact on offense. 

Jamir Watkins is the clear focus and the power forward is a matchup problem. Watkins can shoot it from the perimeter but is the most dangerous putting the ball on the floor and attacking the basket. Jamir does a good job of drawing fouls and getting to the line with his foul shooting another plus attribute. Watkins is a very good defenders who does well getting into the passing lane but his aggressiveness can be used against him as foul trouble can be an issue. Jamir started his career at VCU and will have familiarity with assistant coach JD Byers and Hokies forward Tobi Lawal. 

Malique Ewin is Watkins partner in the post and the two pair to make one of the best frontcourts in the conference. Ewin is a double double machine that is consistency personified. Malique started the season with a poor performance in the first game but since then has scored in single digits just once while currently on a run of 10+ rebounds in 5 of the last 6 games. Ewin is more of the bruiser while Watkins uses more athleticism but the pair are hard to stop no matter how you look at it. 

Daquan Davis, Chandler Jackson, and Justin Thomas are the three primary players listed as guards for the Seminoles. Davis is a point guard who hasn’t shown the ability to be an elite playmaker quite yet but the true freshman does a good job keeping the flow alive. While there isn’t one stat that stands out, Davis is averaging 9.1 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game. Jackson is the starting shooting guard but has missed some time with a groin injury. Chandler is expected to be available tonight so Florida State gets another slasher back into the fold. Thomas comes in and isn’t adding much from a scoring perspective he flashes breakout ability in nearly every statistical category. Defense is the easiest place to look when discussing what Justin brings but he can impact the game through his playmaking and rebounding just as easily. 

The last three to highlight are Taylor Bol Bowen, Jerry Deng, and Bostyn Holt. Bol Bowen and Deng are stylistically similar players who have great length but can also stretch the court. Florida State isn’t always the best perimeter shooting team but Watkins, Bol Bowen, and Deng do a good job of keeping teams honest and stretching the floor so they can use their size both inside and outside the arc. Taylor is the better rebounder but both guys can get aggressive and change the dynamic of the game through their offense. Holt doesn’t stand out much but his 6’7″ length and energy could provide a difficult matchup outside of someone like Ben Burnham for the Hokies. 

If Florida State can continue to apply pressure to the glass and the Hokies’ ball handlers this could turn fairly quickly. The Hokies have some decent matchups on paper but the pace that the Seminoles like to run means if there is any sort of drought for the Hokies offensively and they can’t get Florida State to match that same scoring drought it could be ugly. Virginia Tech has been a good rebounding team through most of the season and they will need to show that again tonight.

Consistency has been the talking point of the season and it will continue to be highlighted again, especially with this matchup. It is not uncommon for college teams to be inconsistent but there is very little consistency from player to player for the Hokies. Multiple guys are capable of breaking out but those same players are just as capable of finishing with 4 points. Against a team like Florida State that can run so many different players at you it gets highlighted because you don’t have the one player you feel confident in changing momentum. 

Tobi Lawal could be that player because of his elite athleticism and the fact that he is guarding Florida State’s best player, but he can be too reliant on the Virginia Tech guards to get things going. Lawal has added a three point shot to his game and does very well around the basket but he hasn’t been able to consistently slash in and draw fouls. Mylyjael Poteat is his frontcourt partner and it is a similar situation, although his moves come from strength rather than athleticism. Poteat can back players down but is much better when he can get the ball on the block and make a shorter move. If Virginia Tech can get the ball into these two and draw some fouls it would completely change the complexion of the game. 

Scoring has turned into an issue and that is partially because of not knowing what to expect from the wings. Jaden Schutt, Jaydon Young, and Rodney Brown have all shown explosive scoring ability but haven’t brought it night in and night out. Schutt is the best shooter on the team but isn’t always aggressive in finding his shot. Young can be too aggressive at times and had a stretch where he launched perimeter shots that weren’t the best shots the team could take but when he is on he can be a knockdown shooter and one of the better slashers on the Hokies roster. Brown has served more as a backup point guard lately but he is another player that can make perimeter shots and set the offense up. If the Hokies can start to stretch the court, especially in this game, then it will open up so much space for the offense to work through the middle. 

Ben Hammond and Brandon Rechsteiner would be the two players who could take advantage of that extra space. Hammond doesn’t have the best size but his quickness and defense stand out. Ben does a good job getting into the middle of the lane and kicking it to an open player. Rechsteiner is nearly the opposite as his point guard duties have looked shaky but when on the court as the shooting guard and more focused on getting his shot he has done well. Brandon has a very solid midrange game and is one of the best shooters on the team so his pull up jumpers could be a separating factor against the Seminoles length. 

Tyler Johnson and Ben Burnham are the final two expected to get significant minutes and they have been two of the most important players throughout conference play. Johnson is a phenomenal rebounding that has been showing more of his offensive prowess lately with more perimeter shots and layups over smaller defenders. Tyler has plenty of strength and will have to show that rebounding off with the size Florida State brings to the court. Burnham does a little bit of everything and is almost exactly who you think of when someone describes a hybrid forward. Ben can take some guys off the dribble, back some guys down, and has a very good perimeter shot. Burnham did better against Clemson in the last game but had a dip in form right before that, so getting him back on track is crucial. 

While some of that seemed awfully negative towards the Virginia Tech roster there is still talent for the Hokies to match up against most teams and win games. The hardest part is just not knowing which players are going to be the ones that will step up. Perimeter shooting, rebounding, and not turning the ball over are some of the most obvious fundamentals in basketball but it rings true again in this game. If the Hokies can knock down some shots to space the floor, limit offensive rebounds for Florida State, and not turn the ball over, especially for fast break opportunities, then it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Hokies pull the upset. 

Prediction

I do think this is the best Virginia Tech has matchup against Florida State in recent memory but that doesn’t help the confidence much. It would not shock me at all to see this stay a close game and the Hokies make a push at the end but there are too many factors pointing towards Florida State to dismiss. Even though the Seminoles are coming in out of form, stopping Watkins is going to be an issue and the Hokies have been so bad from the field that they need to prove it before I feel confident in predicting a win. 

Final: Florida State 81 Virginia Tech 68