The Washington Commanders visit the 1-seed Detroit Lions at Ford Field for an 8 p.m. ET kick-off Saturday in the 2025 NFL Divisional Round. Detroit is a -9.5 favorite at most sportsbooks. DraftKings has Washington at +8.5, which is pretty ballsy since it accepts 6-point teasers. Nevertheless, the Commanders are the perfect team to back as an +8.5 or higher underdog. 

They are playing with “house money” with rookie QB Jayden Daniels, first-year head coach Dan Quinn, and first-year offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Between Detroit’s mediocre defense and a scrambling quarterback, Washington has “backdoor cover potential”. Plus, the Commanders go for it on fourth down to score touchdowns instead of kicking field goals. 

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Washington is being priced like it’s bad-to-average when, in reality, it’s a top-10 team. For instance, the Lions were -9.5 favorites at home over the 5-12 Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving. Obviously, the Commanders are much better than the Bears. But, entering Week 17, Washington was ninth in yards per play margin and sixth in spread differential.

The Detroit Lions host the Washington Commanders Saturday in the 2025 NFL Divisional Round. (Photo: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images)

The Commanders are a live ‘dog vs. any team because Daniels is a bonafide top-10 quarterback in the NFL, even as a rookie. Daniels is fourth in QBR, which is better than QB Rating because it accounts for passing and rushing, and is on a normal 0-100 scale. He is tied for the second-most fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives, behind Patrick Mahomes. 

Fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives are the essence of playing quarterback in the NFL. Most starters can put up numbers in today’s league. But, can you drive your team down the field and score when it matters most and your opponent has made in-game adjustments? Daniels has proven he can. 

Furthermore, Daniels is a matchup problem for Detroit’s injury-ravaged defense. The Lions play a lot of man coverage, and because of this, they struggle against mobile quarterbacks. Daniels averages 6.0 yards per rush and has the second-highest rushing success rate among all ball carriers, behind Josh Allen. 

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Also, the Commanders can keep Detroit’s offense on the sidelines. People think Washington’s NFL-leading fourth-down conversion rate is lucky. But, it’s the product of the Commanders’ strategy, which is to set themselves up for short-yardage situations on late downs. They use Daniels’ legs to get him in space vs. linebackers or buy time for his receivers to get open. 

Washington kept the Tampa Bay Buccaneers off the field in its 23-20 win in the wild-card round. The Commanders were out-gained 6.5-5.1 in yards per play. However, they had the ball for nearly 11 minutes longer (35:26-24:34) and had four drives of 10+ plays, including a 17-play, 92-yard TD drive that lasted 9:08. 

Ultimately, this is the biggest reason for me betting the Commanders +9.5, down to +8. They won’t be able to stop the Lions but, if Washington can keep them off the field, that’s even better. More importantly, the Commanders have a head coach who’s been to a Super Bowl and a superstar quarterback. That’s good enough to keep this a one-score game. 

Prediction: Lions 30, Commanders 27

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