Weekend Storm: Timing Out The Wintry Mix… | Weather Blog

Hate it or love it, a winter storm is on the way this weekend. Prepare for the storm, but please don’t panic. It would be so much easier if we were just getting pure snow, but it becomes far more complicated when you add sleet and freezing rain into the equation. Let me walk you through this hour by hour so you know when to expect the worst. Start time is Sunday morning from 7 am – 10 am with an initial band of snow.

As we approach 12 pm on Sunday, Louisville begins to rock back and forth between sleet and snow. We refer to this as sleet contamination because the sleet really cuts back and eats away at snow potential. Remember, sleet is an ice pellet that refreezes before reaching the ground and bounces off the surface.

At 4 pm the worst of all precipitation types takes over. Freezing rain will last through Sunday night, but the intensity will vary. That’s important. Ice accretion is actually easier when the precipitation is lighter. When the rain is heavier much of it runs off without freezing on contact. 

Look at the map below. The variety of precipitation types from north to south will be huge. Sleet/snow will be the dominant precipitation type to the north at 8 pm. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get reports of thundersleet! It’s still heavy freezing rain in Louisville. Freezing rain/plain rain will continue south and you may even hear rumbles of thunder and see flashes of lightning due to the instability.  

As the night wears on, the precipitation type remains in the same exact zones, however, it becomes lighter after 2 am which allows the ice to build up on trees and power lines. The winds also begin to get stronger as gusts range from 30- 35 mph. That combination is not good when in comes to keeping the lights on. You need to have a plan in case you lose power because we may not get above freezing for 125 to 150 hours. 

Just to be clear, scattered to numerous power outages are possible, especially in areas where the lines are above ground. Around 7 am Monday is when we switch from the wintry mix back over to pure snow. Don’t forget that a layer of ice will be hiding beneath the snow.  

Several hours of moderate snow will last through the morning and into the early afternoon. My suggestion is avoid shoveling until after the storm ends. The initial wave of snow/sleet may act like a barrier preventing the freezing rain from turning everything into a sheet of ice.

Finally, we bring this to an end by 4 pm Monday as the snow becomes lighter before completely pulling away. Listen, I know all of this can be extremely nerve-racking and cause anxiety. Our goal at WDRB is to give you the most accurate forecast to help keep your family safe. 

Here’s what we have as of this update at 11 pm Friday. Pick out your location on the map and follow the legend to see the range in your location. Please don’t just look at the top number. Full disclaimer, there’s so much liquid and so much energy with this dymanic storm that these numbers are going to change. Keep chekcing back with us all weekend for updated snow and ice totals!