What is Josh Downs’ DFS ceiling in Week 17 if Anthony Richardson sits?

With sixteen weeks down, the AFC playoff picture has pretty much taken shape. Only the final two wild card spots remain up for grabs, with the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos both at 9-6 and the Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, and Cincinnati Bengals at 7-8. But Denver has a couple of tough games in Cincinnati and Kansas City, priming the Colts — who have the tiebreaker over both of their 7-8 contemporaries and play the bottom-feeding New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars in the last two weeks — to pounce if the Broncos slip up.

As if Indianapolis wasn’t enough of a wrench in the wild card picture, the Colts might be without their starting quarterback, Anthony Richardson, against New York. Richardson, the third overall pick in the 2023 Draft, missed practice all week with back and foot soreness and is officially questionable for the game. While neither Richardson ($5,900) nor backup Joe Flacco ($4,900) figures to be a huge factor in DFS contests like NFL $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st], the starting quarterback might impact the DFS ceiling of wide receiver Josh Downs ($4,800).

Despite missing three games this season because of a variety of injuries, Downs has been arguably Indianapolis’ most reliable receiver. He has hauled in 59 catches for 687 yards and five scores, better stats than Michael Pittman Jr. ($4,700), who began the season the Colts’ nominal No. 1 receiver. Pro Football Focus grades him as the eighth-best receiver in football, with Pittman the third-best Colt at No. 52 overall.

Normally, an injury to the starting quarterback wouldn’t be good news for a team or its top receiver. But Downs has been unequivocally better with Flacco as his signal-caller, catching 37 passes for 349 yards and two touchdowns in five games where Flacco took the majority of the snaps and only 22 catches for 338 yards and three scores in the seven games that Richardson has been the primary quarterback. Indianapolis went 2-3 in Flacco’s five games, and should be easily favored to beat the Giants, regardless of who lines up under center.

New York hasn’t been great at much this year, but it has excelled against opposing receivers. The Giants have been challenged less frequently through the air than all but five teams and have given up just 3,270 yards, the sixth-fewest in the NFL. They’ve also given up only 19 receiving touchdowns, tied for the eighth-fewest in the NFL. Overall, New York has allowed the eighth-fewest FPTS to opposing wideouts.

The Giants have an awful rush defense, so running back Jonathan Taylor ($7,900) is the obvious beneficiary of Sunday’s matchup. Still, Flacco’s strong connection with Downs should make him a strong DFS play if Richardson is ultimately ruled out.

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