Why Andruw Jones, Billy Wagner belong in Hall of Fame

This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman’s Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

ATLANTA — This will be the last time I need to ask why Billy Wagner has had to wait so much longer than Trevor Hoffman to gain election to the Hall of Fame. But I’m guessing we’ll be touting Andruw Jones’ Cooperstown résumé again next year.

The results of this year’s Hall of Fame balloting will be announced on Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET on MLB Network. Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, Carlos Beltrán and Wagner should enter that day feeling good about election. Unfortunately for Jones, he might be this year’s player who falls just a handful of votes shy of the necessary 75 percent.

Fortunately for Jones, this just positions him to be elected next year and possibly have the stage to himself during the 2026 induction ceremony.

Jones, Suzuki and four current Hall of Famers — Willie Mays, Roberto Clemente, Al Kaline and Ken Griffey Jr. — are the only outfielders to ever win 10 Gold Glove Awards.

While winning those 10 consecutive Gold Gloves from 1998-2007, Jones ranked third among all MLB players with a 57.6 bWAR, behind only Alex Rodriguez (80) and Barry Bonds (71). Chipper Jones, Todd Helton and Albert Pujols each produced a 54.9 mark during this decade-long stretch.

Andruw Jones had seven 30-homer seasons, including an MLB-best 51-homer campaign in 2005. But what truly set him apart was the defensive excellence that has led many to continue to consider him to be the best center fielder the game has ever seen.

Jones had a 24.2 defensive WAR from 1998-2007. The next closest players were Hall of Famers Scott Rolen (15.1) and Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez (13.5).

Yeah, there was a steep decline late in Jones’ career. But he captured the baseball world’s attention at age 19 and spent the next decade proving to be elite. If you give leeway to a player who debuts at 23 and then starts to decline in their mid-30s, then the same grace should be given to Jones, who was as good as it gets for an entire decade.

My case for Wagner
From 1995 (the debut season for Wagner and Mariano Rivera) through 2010 (Wagner’s final season), Rivera led all relievers in fWAR with 34.9. Wagner ranked second with 24.1, and Hoffman ranked third with 24.0.

The baseball world has wisely minimized the significance of pitching wins. Maintaining this same line of reasoning in relation to Wagner — who had 422 career saves, as opposed to 652 for Rivera and 601 for Hoffman — there’s reason to argue voters have placed too much emphasis on save totals when evaluating a reliever’s qualifications.

Hoffman was elected to the Hall of Fame in 2018, and Rivera was elected unanimously in ’19. While Hoffman totaled 179 more saves, Wagner had a better ERA (2.31 vs. 2.87), a higher strikeout rate (33.2% vs. 25.8%) and a lower OPS surrendered (.558 vs. .609).

So why was Hoffman elected in his third year on the ballot while Wagner has had to wait until his 10th year to potentially get elected?

Hopefully, we get a chance to ask similar questions about Brian McCann’s candidacy over the next few years. Here’s a tidbit I included in last week’s newsletter:

McCann ranked second among all MLB catchers with 40.2 bWAR from 2005-13. The only catcher to produce a higher WAR during that nine-season span was Joe Mauer (45). Mauer, who handled the Twins’ catching duties just once after the 2013 season, finished his career with a 53.5 WAR. McCann remained behind the plate throughout his career and retired with a 52.1 WAR.

Mauer became a first-ballot Hall of Famer last year and early projections indicate McCann might not get the 5 percent of the vote needed to stay on the ballot for a second year. Gaps like these just highlight the inconsistencies we often see during the Hall of Fame balloting process.

It’s worth noting that Jones received less than 8 percent of the votes during his first two years on the ballot and Wagner received less than 11 percent during his first two years of eligibility.