With Zach Edey gone, Purdue no longer huge Big Ten favorite

After two years of controlling Big Ten men’s basketball, Purdue’s grip on the league is loosening.

Regression, of course, was expected when the Boilermakers lost two-time national player of the year Zach Edey. Purdue lost eight regular-season games across Edey’s junior and senior years. A pre-Christmas 87-69 loss to No. 2 Auburn gave them four this season before the bulk of Big Ten play.

In the absence of the 25.2 points and 12.3 rebounds per game provided by Edey last year, Purdue has relied more on Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn.

“We have individuals that we wear out a little bit,” Painter told reporters after the Auburn loss. “They really have a lot of responsibility, but there’s thousands of kids across the country that would love that responsibility.”

All have been solid. Smith, averaging 14.5 points, 8.6 assists and 4.6 rebounds per game, was already one of the best point guards in the country. Loyer is shooting 47.2% from 3 and Kaufman-Renn has taken a step forward as a post scorer. But replacing Edey is impossible, so the Boilermakers are another good team in a crowded conference and wide-open race.  

Purdue (9-4 overall, 1-1 in the Big Ten) is the 174th-most prolific offensive rebounding team in the country after ranking No. 7 in 2023-24. Its defensive efficiency has regressed. Meanwhile, the conference has grown deeper around the Boilermakers. Michigan State (11-2, 2-0) is off to its best start since 2021-22. Michigan (10-3, 2-0) looks scary under new coach Dusty May. Illinois (9-3, 1-1) remains formidable.

The race for the regular-season crown is up in the air without a clear favorite.

More Big Ten notes as league play restarts Thursday night.

Northwestern forward Nick Martinelli is one of the early surprises of the season. The Wildcats (10-3, 1-1) needed to replace Boo Buie’s scoring, but a junior who averaged 8.8 points per game a season ago while mostly coming off the bench has been an unexpected source. He and Brooks Barnhizer are both averaging more than 20 points per game this season. The Wildcats rank in the top 100 nationally in points per 100 possessions.

Martinelli’s 50% clip from 3-point range might not be sustainable, but his overall efficiency with a high usage rate and playing 88.7% of available minutes has been a major reason the 10-3 Cats haven’t taken a step back post-Buie.

Rutgers’ much-anticipated freshman duo of Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper has been as advertised, with Bailey averaging 18.2 points and 7.6 rebounds per game and Harper averaging 22.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.8 assists.

Not that it’s mattered for the Scarlet Knights, who haven’t shown any sign of being able to consistently beat good teams. Rutgers (8-5, 1-1) has lost to Kennesaw State and Princeton and is 3-3 against high majors, beating Notre Dame, Penn State and Seton Hall.

In four of the six games against power conference teams, RU has allowed at least 80 points.

On their current trajectory, the Scarlet Knights will waste Harper and Bailey, likely bound for the NBA at the end of the season. It would also continue the rapid spiral that began almost two years ago.

In early February 2023, Rutgers was 16-7 with six conference wins over teams that would eventually make the NCAA tournament, including on the road at then-No. 1 Purdue. The Scarlet Knights lost six of eight to close the regular season and improbably missed the tournament. In 2023-24, they were one of the worst shooting teams in the country while going 7-13 in Big Ten play. 

Coach Steve Pikiell has been in Piscataway since 2016 with two tournament appearances and no games after the first weekend to show for it. Another lost season with possibly his most talented roster would be further evidence of a program spinning its wheels.

The Big Ten is no longer defined by its big men. Two seasons ago, Edey, Trayce Jackson-Davis and Hunter Dickinson stood and played head and shoulders above most of the league. Three seasons ago, Kofi Cockburn averaged 20 points and 10 rebounds per game as an All-American for Illinois. All were traditional centers. Only Dickinson was a threat to step out to the perimeter.

Only one of the top five scorers in the league this season is a forward, Dawson Garcia of Minnesota. The rest are guards, and three of them attempt at least 3.5 3-pointers per game. It’s all cyclical; the college game is still friendlier to back-to-the-basket post players than the NBA. This year, those who regulate the temperature of the conference play on the perimeter.

The four West Coast newcomers can be divided into two simple categories as to how they’ll impact this season. No. 9 Oregon (12-1, 1-1) and No. 15 UCLA (11-2, 2-0) are in a position to contend for a conference title.

USC (9-4, 1-1) and Washington (9-4, 0-2) couldn’t be further from relevance. The Trojans and Huskies are in their first years under new coaches and beginning the rebuilding process, as USC coach Eric Musselman acknowledged after a loss to Oregon.

“I don’t know how many Big Ten games we’re gonna win,” Musselman said.

USC did beat Washington, helmed by Danny Sprinkle after stalling out under Mike Hopkins. With the expanded conference, 15 of 18 teams will make the Big Ten tournament. Lots can change over the last two months of the season, but early-season returns suggest both could be left out in their first years in the league.

Millard North graduate Saint Thomas averages 9.6 points, 5.9 rebounds and 4.5 assists for the Trojans. At Wisconsin, Omaha Central graduate John Tonje averages 19.2 points and five rebounds per game. At Michigan State, Bellevue West graduate Frankie Fidler is averaging 9.2 points and 3.6 rebounds per game. Another Bellevue West graduate, William Kyle, plays at UCLA and shared on X this week that he underwent surgery for an undisclosed injury. He averaged 4.2 points and 3.1 rebounds per game.