Xs and Oats: Fresh off a huge road win in Rupp, No. 4 Alabama can’t overlook the dangerous ‘Dores

As Mark Pope said following Saturday’s tilt vs. the Tide, there are no off-nights in the SEC. Ask Alabama, who on paper were a double-digit favorite at home to Ole Miss, and then lost to that same Rebels squad by double-digits. Or ask the once-No. 1 Tennessee Volunteers, who made a short trip to a decrepit Nashville high school gym to pick up a pretty easy road win against the rebuilding Vanderbilt Commodores. The Vols left the victim of a court-storming.

Turns out that the truism still has veracity: Games aren’t won on paper. After three of the last four on the road, Alabama is back in the Mausoleum on Tuesday to face the surprising Vanderbilt Commodores, and what the Tide did on Saturday won’t matter much at tip-off. These ‘Dores are dangerous…because there are no off-nights in this league.

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Tale of the Tape: No. 37 Vanderbilt (15-3, 3-2) vs No. 4 Alabama (15-3, 4-1)

Spread UPDATED: Alabama -12.5

Opponent KenPom: 48 (40 offense, 69 defense, 53 tempo)
Opponent Evan Miya: 45 (43 offense, 45 defense, 45 tempo)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 40 (37 offense, 66 defense, 50 tempo)
Opponent NET: 37 (4-3 Q1); Q2 opponent for the Tide
Opponent RPI: 47
Opponent Best Win: vs Tennessee (6)
Opponent Worst Loss: Drake N (72)

UA Ken Pom: 8th (4 Off, 43 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Evan Miya: 6th (3 Off, 23 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Bart Torvik: 7th (3 Off, 33 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA NET Ranking: 7 (10-3 Q1/2)
UA RPI: 2
UA Best KenPom Win: No. 3 (N) Houston
UA Worst KenPom Loss: No. 20 (N) Oregon

Oh, look, another 5-out tempo-team!

In the case of Mark Byington’s ‘Dores, it at least makes sense. He was an all-conference 1000-point scorer in college, and as a former guard has catered his offense to a style of ball that is amenable to that experience. It’s worked too.

Byington is one of the nation’s up-and-comers, and has earned a reputation for both playing a high-tempo, high-scoring brand of basketball, and also quick turnarounds. After years of being mired in losing, Byington’s teams at Georgia Southern and James Madison immediately turned around and won 20+ games his first year. And in the case of the Dukes, even became a bit of a low-major power in their own right. His JMU squads took home conference titles, upended No. 5 MSU and No. 4 Wisconsin in NCAA tourneys, and had one of the nation’s most prolific offenses — hitting 80+ more often than otherwise.

We’ve covered the 5-out before, in a variety of iterations (high-tempo, like Kentucky; slow-paced defense, like South Carolina), so I’m not going to bludgeon you with another 1000 words on the system: the links are below, if you need a refresher. Instead, we’re going to see what it is that the ‘Dores do differently than someone like the Wildcats.

Perhaps the first thing you will notice is that Vanderbilt does not run many two-man screens or pick-and-rolls. Byington is a big believer in the three-man screen game. This draws defenders towards to the ball, fearing they will be outnumbered for an easy jumper, and then he hits you with backside screens and Bellarmine cuts to the basket. Like Ole Miss (and Bobby Knight), this is a style of basketball that doesn’t look to put the ball on the floor; instead it uses extra passes and a series of multiple rolling screens across the court which follow the ball. Then, when the offense gets a numerical mismatch, then they dart a quick look to the backside for an easy bucket.

It’s not a perfect analogy, but think of it as similar to the spread in football: Put players in space, then generate a numerical mismatch or busted assignment for a big play.

The passes are whipped around the perimeter at speed, high screens are set fast and continuously near the arc, and they dare defenders to keep up with their man amidst all the traffic and ball movement. It borrows some of the four-out reliance on spacing, with the no-dribble passing and ball screens of a traditional motion offense. It’s very hard to defend if you’re not man-sound on the defensive end.

Offense, naturally, is the strength of this Vandy team.

Watch this, if you want to see how to move the ball at tempo, with minimal-to-no-dribbling, and why this is called the “Bellarmine Cut.” It generates a lot of points quickly, and it does so without having to lean into the three-point shot — and Vandy likewise doesn’t rely on the perimeter ball.

And, while it is at tempo, because there are so many screens, it’s not as fast-paced as Alabama, and they do generally take until the second-half of the shot clock to find an open cutter.

Defensively, in many respects, the ‘Dores remind you of Kent State — they set up at the perimeter, get close enough to diagnose you with halitosis, and attack the ball. Unlike, say South Carolina or Ole Miss, they contest every pass, and stick to their man tight throughout the possession. You have to double-screen this team or find open looks and make good passes, because iso shots aren’t the easiest ones to get off. That face-up, man pressure presents the most danger when the ball is put on the floor or teams get careless with their passing: Vanderbilt will pick your pocket like a Gypsy in a Paris subway.

And, if you can’t find an open look (even when you’re not turning it over) you have to make contested shots. The defensive strength of this team is certainly not in rebounding; the strength is in forcing low-percentage shots from the perimeter, and most teams have struggled to hit them.

Like Kent State, they’re a small bunch and not very physical. But if a team like Houston is a killer hornet, capable of smashing you with one shot, don’t lose sight of the fact that even honey bees can kill you with death-by-a-thousand-stings. Alabama will have to play smart, particularly when making that first pass into the possession — that is by far when Vanderbilt is at its most dangerous defensively, and they excel at turning upcourt on the break when forcing quick turnovers.

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Key Personnel

Vanderbilt is a guard-led team, in a guard-led offense. And, yes, the backcourt are the leading scorers — combining for a fairly modest 28 points per game. But like the Gamecocks, the strength of this offense, and easily its most dangerous players, are the two VU forwards.

In particular, F/PF Devin McGlockton has had a very strong start to the season and is the one player that Alabama must neutralize to have defensive success. He’s Vandy’s best floor shooter (an absurd 74%), its best rebounder, and for good measure is the one of the best perimeter shooters (35.7% on a team that lacks a lot of perimeter players and doesn’t attempt very many deep balls). You can’t just expect him to move to the basket: he will catch-and-shoot from the perimeter. I would expect that McGlockton will get a heavy dose of Little Mo and Cliff, who physically match up best with him (though for different reasons), with some backside help from Youngblood.

In the backcourt, PJ AJ Hoggard is the second-leading scorer for the Commodores, and one of their craftiest defenders, averaging almost four steals a night. Though not a prolific scorer (just about 12 a night), he sees the floor very well and is a 2:1 assist man from the point. Hoggard is a fairly poor shooter from deep, but still launches about four a game to keep his defender honest.

Now, small forward Tyler Nickel and SG Jason Edwards are the high-volume shooters from beyond the arc. The pair combine for 11.2 three attempts per contest, and both shoot a well-above average 37-38% from beyond the arc. However, that is about it for must-guard perimeter players: Nickel, Edwards, and McGlockton. It’s a poor shooting perimeter team (even worse than Alabama in percentage terms), but unlike the Tide, they aren’t a volume shooting squad.

How To Watch

Tuesday 21 January, 6 CST, SEC Network

Prediction

Last week, I said this about the UK game:

I don’t think for all the admitted firepower on display it’s actually going to be won away from the basket; it’s going to be won by doing the dirty work the most consistently. Who has the most blue collar moments, who wants to fight for defensive rebounds, who wants to hit the floor, who wants to body their way through a screen, who wants to give some backside help or jump in to cut off the lane, who wants to take a charge.

This could be a game decided by the less-heralded players: Grant, Cliff (WHO NEEDS TO BE PLAYING FAR MORE — BB4), Youngblood, Little Mo — people who want to play tough. People who can play tough. I’d kill a man to bring Herb Jones in for this one.

That turned out to be prescient. Little Mo played superbly, and won the Hard Hat. Grant had his best game in two weeks and was arguably the player of the game in setting the first-half tone. Chris knocked down a few shots, got to the line, and played superb defense late. What can you say about Cliff? He was all over the floor, and had another good night, particularly offensively.

And Jarin…well, Jarin was Jarin. I swear, he has to have kompromat on this staff or something.

This game is apt to be a bit different than that one, though the names are likely to be familiar.

Rather than role-players in the post, Alabama needs to win at the rim and run much of their offense through the paint. Like Ole Miss, Vandy is a tiny team. Unlike Ole Miss, it is also inexperienced one that is just average in the paint on both ends of the floor. They are prone to being overwhelmed by more talented opponents who make a concerted effort to beat them up inside. And whereas Alabama was obstinate in trying to test the middle against a Rebel team whose entire MO is stopping interior penetration, the Tide can have success attacking precisely that weak link. And they no doubt will with dribble-drives, quick-cuts, lobs and timely offensive rebounding.

Alabama has a tremendous rebounding, height, and physicality advantage. I would expect the Tide to stuff these nerds in a locker.

As of this writing, the spread for this game is not out. KenPom projects a 12-point Alabama win. My offense-heavier modeling has it closer to 14.8-17.3 for the Tide. Alabama has covered six of its last seven though, and are 5-2 on the over since Christmas.

I’ll split the difference here, and say that Alabama gives up too many easy points with turnovers and losing their man in traffic, but all of that size and talent and depth is simply way too much for the ‘Dores.

Alabama 89
Vanderbilt 74

Hope for the best.
Roll Tide.

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