South Africa qualify for WTC final; what India and Australia need to do to book their ticket to Lord’s

Temba Bavuma-led South Africa on Sunday sealed qualification for the World Test Championship (WTC) final set to be played at Lord’s Cricket Ground, London, in June 2025. The Proteas qualified for the summit clash by beating Pakistan in the first Test of the two-match series by two wickets. Chasing 148, the Proteas were in a spot of bother after being reduced to 99/8. However, Kagiso Rabada (31*) and Marco Jansen (16*) ensured that the hosts went past the finishing line in Centurion in the second session on Day 4.

Heading into the two-Test series against Pakistan, South Africa needed to win just one match to qualify for the WTC final. Now, it does not matter what the result of the second Test between South Africa and Pakistan is. Proteas are currently at the top of the table in the WTC standings.

This result has put more pressure on India and Australia. The two teams squaring off in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy now cannot put a foot wrong if they want to seal their place for the WTC final. With South Africa winning the first Test against Pakistan, we won’t be getting a repeat of the 2023 WTC final between India and Australia.

What must India and Australia do to qualify for the WTC final?

Rohit Sharma and co’s points percentage slipped from 57.29 to 55.88 after the drawn Test in Brisbane. The side are currently third in the WTC standings, behind South Africa and Australia.

Eight points currently separate Australia and India on the WTC standings. India have only one game left after the Melbourne Test. However, Australia will have three matches left — one against India and two against Sri Lanka.

India and Australia are contesting for a total of 228 points, which increases the importance of their two head-to-head contests in Melbourne and Sydney.

India and Australia’s WTC final scenarios:

If India win MCG Test but draw the series 2-2 with Australia’s win in Sydney, India will finish their WTC cycle with a total of 126 points and a 55.26 PCT. Australia can, however, overhaul India with two draws or at least one win in Sri Lanka. The same case will be followed if Australia win in Melbourne but lose in Sydney.

If India draw MCG Test and win in Sydney, they will finish the WTC cycle on 130 points with a 57.01 PCT. Australia must then beat Sri Lanka 2-0 to qualify for the WTC final.

If India lose the Melbourne Test but manage to salvage a draw in Sydney, they Rohit Sharma and co will end up with 118 points. However, Australia would have overhauled this by the end of the series.

If India play out draws in both Melbourne and Sydney, they will finish with 122 points and a 53.50 PCT. Australia will then be required to beat Sri Lanka at least in one match to pip India and qualify for the final.

Updated WTC standings:

South Africa (Q) (PCT 66.67)

Australia (PCT 58.89)

India (PCT 55.88)

New Zealand (PCT 48.21)

Sri Lanka (PCT 45.45)

England (PCT 43.18)

Pakistan (PCT 30.30)

Bangladesh (PCT 31.25)

West Indies (PCT 24.24)